America’s Government Accountability Office (GAO) watchdog has warned that the US may struggle to sustain a long-term conflict with China should hostilities break out. The issue is not about technical capability (the US military is arguably the world’s most powerful), but rather a matter of logistics.

For combat operations thousands of miles from home, as would be the case in the Indo-Pacific, the GAO argues that the US may struggle to refuel and resupply assets, notably its considerable aircraft fleet.

The issue mainly centers around aging refueling aircraft and issues with spare parts. If tensions over Taiwan were to go hot, these could both conspire to make American efforts in the region trickier than expected.

“The percentage of aerial refuelling tankers that are available and mission capable has remained persistently below the standards that the [US] Air Force established for the fleet,” the report said.

To give you some idea of the problem, imagine an F-35 running a sortie from Hawaii to Taiwan, say. These aircraft have a combat radius of around 700 miles (1,127 km), and the distance between these two islands is about 5,000 miles.

An army marches on its stomach

The fighter wouldn’t be able to make it on its own and would need several midair refueling operations to safely get there and back. After the mission, it may also need repairs, which require a sufficient stock of spare parts lying around.

If enough tankers aren’t available, the fighters couldn’t arrive in meaningful numbers. A bit of a quandary.

Of course, travel distances for fighters can be dramatically reduced by deploying carrier groups closer to Taiwan, but that puts them at risk of being attacked by long-range missiles (including hypersonics), submarines, or Chinese aircraft.

The main weakness, the report argues, is the US reliance on aging aircraft like Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers. Many of the current airframes entered service in the 1950s and 1960s, and are still going strong.

The airframes have been upgraded repeatedly, but old aircraft require more maintenance and suffer more breakdowns. And that leads to the second main issue: a lack of spare parts.

The US military increasingly struggles to obtain parts for older systems. Some suppliers no longer exist, and some components must be specially manufactured. Any break in supply means that assets, like aircraft, can sit grounded while waiting for parts.

Not how much you make, it’s how much you keep

So, even if you have 400 tankers on paper, perhaps only 250 are actually flyable on a given day. Other issues cited include a shortage of skilled personnel and delays in replacement hardware for older tech, like the planned Boeing KC-46 Pegasus.

But the KC-46 program has experienced years of technical problems and delays. The Air Force expected newer tankers to reduce pressure on older aircraft.

When factoring in the fact that China reportedly possesses long-range missiles specifically designed to target US bases and support aircraft, any direct conflict could prove very expensive for the US.

China’s military planners, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports, understand that destroying tankers may be more effective than trying to shoot down stealth fighters.

So, would such a conflict mean China could win? Not necessarily, since China has its own issues (like a lack of combat experience), but a “home advantage” would certainly tip the odds in its favor unless the US can cure its growing logistical bottlenecks.

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