Time to overturn everything climate scientists believed they knew: temperate species are not less vulnerable to climate change but more. It does not look good.

“The world has changed since 2016,” says John Wiens, the senior author of a new study published in Nature Climate.

“There’s been more heating in temperate zones, especially at higher latitudes, and the pattern may have simply flipped in recent decades…” as researchers are clawing to understand why they are encountering a reversal in what they held to be true.

“For animals, we did not find that tropical extinctions were less common than we thought before. Instead, we found that temperate extinctions had outpaced tropical extinctions,” continues Weins in a press release.

Scientists calculated an increase of approximately 3.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the tropics over the past 25 years. That paled in comparison to a 6-degree increase in temperate zones – that’s twice as high. They are warming faster.

“While faster warming in temperate regions appears to be the primary driver of local extinctions, we also found that temperate species are at least as sensitive to rising temperatures as tropical species,” Murali said.

Uh oh, climate change just got real

“Local extinction” refers to the complete disappearance of a species or population from a specific geographic area or habitat, even though the species continues to survive elsewhere in the world.

Or, according to a press release, the animals and plants that appear on our favorite hiking trail.

The study demonstrates that these populations cannot survive the changing environmental conditions, which could lead to the end of the entire species.

“People often think that a species will simply move into cooler areas as the climate warms, but we found that more than 70% of the species were not doing so,” continued Wiens.

Simply, animals might not be able to cross highways. Aquatic creatures might be confined to their lake or river. Mountain species might just…run out of a mountain to climb. In other words, the animal kingdom is running out of options–and fast.

“In the past, we have been laser-focused on the warmest areas,” said Wiens. (The tropics) “But it turns out that nowhere is really safe for populations of many temperate species.”

Time to shift our efforts

Across the 5,100 species of plants and animals reviewed, researchers found 45% had gone locally extinct at the warmest part of the region where they were previously found, according to the press release.

Even more frightening, the percentage exceeded 50% in many groups, including insects, terrestrial vertebrates, and marine species.

Researchers emphasized, most likely anticipating backlash from critics, that this study is not based on future projections but rather real biological changes that have already occurred. This is where we are, now, not where we are going.

“People often think climate change is something that will affect species in the future,” said lead author Gopal Murali. “But for both tropical and temperate species, we’re already seeing the effects. The patterns we documented show that biodiversity is already changing in ways we are still working to understand.”

Study authors even expressed their true surprise, citing a previous study of 976 species in 2016, which demonstrated the opposite pattern: more local extinction among tropical species. But now, that understanding is changing. All the same, the basic truth is: populations are going extinct. Temperatures continue to rise. Climate change is real.

The findings of the new study could have important implications for climate conservation planning moving forward, as efforts might need to shift into the temperate zone. These species may be in greater danger than previously recognized, the press release concludes.

Read the study in Nature Climate Change.

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