University of Michigan researchers have found that the US and Canada may have enough rare earth deposits for self-supply negating the need for imports, if developed. However, they point out that this will not be cheap, will require government support, and cooperation between the US and Canada to make it a reality.

Rare earth metals like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium are critical for electric vehicles, wind turbines, electronics, and weapon systems. Such materials are important as they can make incredibly powerful magnets.

Without them, modern high-performance electric motors would become much heavier and less efficient. Given their importance, they are fast becoming a matter of national security, and, as such, should be provided domestically, if at all possible.

“With this study, we are trying to give a framework of information that might allow a more systematic evaluation of deposits, and to avoid an overconcentration of support for deposits which might not, in the long run, be competitive,” said Stephen Kesler, professor emeritus in the U-M Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.

Can the US and Canada break rare earth dependence on China?

“Environmentally, we don’t want to do any more mining than necessary, and if you have too much production, then the price drops and everyone goes out of business. This is a situation in which a little bit of government oversight in terms of funding and encouragement can help to develop a stable industry,” he added.

But while the US and Canada have plenty of them in their backyards, it is currently cheaper to import them from overseas, like China. Since around the 1980s, China has invested massively in huge mines, sophisticated processing plants, and efficient supply streams.

This has been so successful that they now supply something like 70% of the global supply. But if the US and Canada can make mining and processing domestic rare earth deposits economically competitive, this could be challenged.

However, as the team found, not all mines are equal. “Our results show that all of the deposits in North America, except the Mountain Pass mine in California, which is already in operation, are of lower quality than those that are in operation in China and Australia. But that doesn’t mean they can’t be produced,” Kesler said.

“The bottom line is that the deposits are close enough in quality that they might be able to support a domestic supply chain with a little government support, particularly if the prices remain high. The increased costs of mining rare earths in a supply chain of this type might be offset by savings in other parts of the processing and manufacturing stages,” he added.

“For light rare earths, the U.S. could do a good job of supplying itself, and for heavy rare earths, we would do best to cooperate with Canada,” Kesler said.

Not all deposits are equal

For context here, “light” refers to rare earths like lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, and praseodymium, which are relatively abundant. “Heavy” refers to dysprosium
and terbium, which are much rarer and tend to be used in high-temperature magnets.

“One reason rare earth elements are classified as critical minerals is because of their vital importance for multiple industrial and technology applications as well as national defense,” Greg Keoleian said.

“But they also pose a supply chain risk, and disruption of the supply chain could have significant economic and national security consequences. And they’re essential inputs for the clean energy transition,” he added.

The researchers estimate that worldwide demand for rare earth minerals will increase from 91 kilotons in 2024 to 123 kilotons in 2030 and 150 kilotons in 2040. Their next plan is to examine whether domestic supplies of four key magnet materials (neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium) will be sufficient to meet demand through 2050 as electric vehicle production continues to expand.

You can view the study for yourself in the journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling.

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