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Dive Brief:

• Meta is expected to surpass Google in digital ad revenues both in the U.S. and internationally for the first time in 2026, according to predictions from Emarketer sent in an email to Marketing Dive.
• Meta’s net worldwide ad revenue is forecast to total $243.46 billion this year, accounting for 26.8% of global ad spending. Google is predicted to command 26.4% of global ad spending, a share totaling $239.54 billion.
• Meta leapfrogging Google is largely due to an accelerated overall growth rate across the organization, which is expected to jump to 24.1% in 2026 from 22.1% in 2025. Google’s overall growth is expected to hold at 11.9%. 

Dive Insight:

Advertising dollars continue to consolidate around Google, Meta and Amazon, largely due to the three platforms' wealth of first-party information, reach and artificial intelligence integration, according to emailed comments by Senior Forecasting Analyst Drew Spink. Amazon, in third place, is expected to capture 9% of global ad revenue, with revenue growing from $68.64 billion in 2025 to $82.07 billion in 2026. Together, the three platforms amount to 62.3% of global digital ad spending, with the combined market share likely increasing through 2028.

Outside of the top three platforms, ByteDance is expected to account for 7.9% of the market, with 4.8% coming from TikTok and 3.1% from its Chinese counterpart, Douyin. Microsoft will make up 2.1%, with approximately half of that coming from LinkedIn. Apple is predicted to capture just 1.6% of total digital ad revenue. Combined, Walmart, Snapchat, Pinterest, Reddit and X are forecasted to occupy 2.4% of revenue shares, with each company contributing less than 1% each.

Meta’s eked out its edge due to growth coming from the entire ecosystem, while Google continues to rely heavily on subscription services to generate revenue. Increased automation has improved ad performance on Facebook and Instagram, along with Reels, giving Meta a leg up. 

“For the vast majority of advertisers, the question is not whether they should spend money on Meta’s apps — the question is how much they should spend,” said Max Willens, principal analyst at Emarketer in press materials.

The outcome of a recent court case involving Meta and Google, where both companies were found liable for contributing to the depression and anxiety of a woman who compulsively used social media as a child, is unlikely to have a major impact on the platform's growth, according to the forecast. While the forecast was completed prior to the verdict, it holds that the case and others like it take years to resolve, and largely don’t force companies to change operations. Additionally, ad dollars are largely based on performance, not legal risk.

As a whole, global advertising growth is expected to climb 10.4%, equating to $1.32 trillion, according to WARC research. However, the Iran war and the subsequent energy crisis could potentially see two-year growth losses of nearly $100 billion.