Summary

• The Iran conflict does not seem sufficient, at present, to disrupt major U.S. economic trends, but higher input costs could dampen consumer demand and corporate investment.
• Forecasts for earnings and economic growth have actually risen since the start of the Iran conflict, a notable divergence between fundamental expectations and market action.
• A rapid end to the military action could result in a relief rally, but given the uncertainty, strong secular themes with lower risk relative to the market (beta) and those that may be oversold seem attractive.

Markets generally price in the impact of geopolitical events relatively quickly and then look past the short-run effects to focus on the future.¹ Through World Wars, Cold Wars, and nuclear crises, the global economy has continued

3.68K Followers