Summary

• Assuming that the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding remains in effect and the Strait of Hormuz reopens as agreed, the prices of equities, industrial metals and gold could have an upward bias for a few more weeks.
• With regard to industrial commodities, our concern is solely about the short term, because much higher prices remain likely over the coming 1-2 years.
• The greater the amount of trade with Iran and the more that foreign companies/investors are involved in Iran’s reconstruction, the lower the probability of another war.

Editor's Note: Originally published at tsi-blog.com on June 22, 2026

[This blog post is a slightly modified excerpt from a commentary published at https://speculative-investor.com/ last week]

Assuming that the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) remains in