Summary

• The next two weeks trade on plumbing, not earnings. We just cleared the largest options expiration on record, with quarter-end pension selling and a July 1 reallocation wave still ahead.
• The market technical backdrop is constructive but narrow. The S&P sits above both major moving averages and only a couple percent off its high, yet barely half of its members hold above their own 50-day line.
• Demand is genuinely strong: record retail activity, more than $1 trillion of ETF inflows year to date, and the heaviest buyback authorizations ever through mid-year.
• Here's my problem with "the path of least resistance is higher." Kevin Warsh just removed the easing bias. The dip-buying reflex that powers this tape assumes a Fed put that may no longer exist.

Here’s the setup most investors are underrating right now. Over the next two weeks, the tape will trade on plumbing rather than fundamentals. We just cleared the largest options expiration in history. Quarter-end pension selling comes next, and then July