Summary

• The MoU between the US and Iran outlines the terms of their ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, some financial relief for Iran, and Tehran’s renewed pledge to never produce a nuclear weapon.
• The US and Iran have signed a preliminary MoU outlining a ceasefire, some economic concessions and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering market relief but marking only the start of negotiations rather than a final deal.
• Despite a more hawkish Fed, we continue to think a prolonged pause is more likely than a rate hike.
• In the eurozone, the 10yr rate (take your pick of the German 10yr or Euribor) has dipped decisively below 3% as the agreement has crystallised.