nonnie192/iStock via Getty Images
Listen below or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify
Five of the Magnificent 7 report in a packed week. (0:17) Powell probe dropped, Warsh now faces vote. (2:00) Berkshire meets without Buffett after steep underperformance. (3:26)
The earnings floodgate opens this week with 180 S&P 500 companies reporting, including 11 Dow components and — most importantly — five of the Magnificent 7.
Apple (AAPL) reports Thursday, with investors focused on what a leadership transition means for its AI strategy.
Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) all report Wednesday. Here’s how the debate is shaping up:
Apple:
Bulls say the company may trail in AI today, but its hardware ecosystem and on-device processing could position it as the long-term edge-computing winner.
Bears argue Apple is already priced like an AI leader, and with execution lagging and a CEO transition underway, the stock risks multiple compression.
Microsoft:
The question is AI payback. Bulls see signs that AI investment is translating into revenue, with cost discipline protecting margins. Skeptics counter that spending still runs ahead of returns and that Azure growth and Copilot adoption must justify the capex.
Meta:
Bulls say Meta shows the clearest AI monetization so far, with strong ad-driven margin expansion. The risk is macro — higher-for-longer rates could pressure both ad budgets and valuation multiples.
Amazon:
It’s a timing debate. Bulls point to AWS and custom silicon as long-term AI winners. Bears warn heavy capex and slower revenue conversion could weigh on near-term free cash flow.
Alphabet:
The upside lies in its fully integrated AI stack across search and cloud. The risk is that AI disrupts the core search business before new revenue streams scale.
Also on the calendar:
The only thing that could rival such an earnings deluge would be a big Fed week. And while this week’s decision is widely expected to result in no rate move, it’s still a consequential one.
Wednesday’s FOMC decision will be the last with Jerome Powell as chairman.
On Friday, the DOJ said it had closed its criminal investigation into Powell and handed oversight of the probe into the Fed building renovation to the Inspector General. That clears the path for Kevin Warsh, whose nomination had been held up during the investigation. A Senate Banking Committee vote is expected Wednesday and Chairman Thom Tillis posted Sunday he would vote to confirm Warsh.
Economist Joseph Brusuelas said Powell “stood tall. He stared down the president. The DOJ blinked.”
Markets now face a scenario in which the new chairman could be a dissenting vote, Brusuelas added, as Warsh may push for a rate cut in June but lack majority support.
At Wednesday’s press conference, investors will also be watching for any signal on whether Powell intends to remain on the Board of Governors. He had previously indicated he would stay at the Fed until the DOJ probe was completed.
Prediction market Kalshi currently shows an 84% chance Powell exits as a Fed governor before 2027, with 65% odds of departure before August and 55% before June — down from peaks seen immediately after Friday’s DOJ announcement.
Economist Claudia Sahm said both the Fed and Warsh could benefit from Powell remaining temporarily as a governor.
“That’s only true because of the White House’s pressure campaign on the Fed,” she said. “In normal times, it would be time to go. It is not normal now.”
Also this week, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) will hold its first annual meeting Saturday without Warren Buffett at the helm.
Barron’s said the stock may offer an attractive entry point following one of its worst stretches of underperformance relative to the S&P 500 since Buffett took control in 1965.
In news this weekend, President Trump is safe after a gunman attempted to breach security at the Washington Hilton during Saturday night’s White House Correspondents' Dinner.
The president was on the main dais when shots were fired on another floor of the hotel. Trump, the First Lady, Vice President JD Vance and Cabinet members were evacuated.
The New York Times reported that while some attendees sought shelter under tables, former Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein, seated near the front of the ballroom, turned to a colleague and asked, “Are you going to finish that salad?”
In geopolitics, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner did not travel to Pakistan for previously planned talks aimed at ending the Iran war.
Trump said Iran “can call us anytime they want.”
Odds of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran by the end of May slipped to around 30% on Polymarket.
And for income investors, Cal-Maine (CALM) goes ex-dividend on Wednesday, with a May 14 payout date.
Morgan Stanley (MS) goes ex-dividend Thursday, paying out May 15.
Costco (COST) goes ex-dividend Friday, also paying May 15.
此内容由惯性聚合(RSS阅读器)自动聚合整理，仅供阅读参考。 原文来自 — 版权归原作者所有。