Summary

• The Bank of England kept rates on hold in April, but as the crisis in the Middle East drags on, the chances of modest tightening are rising.
• We now expect a 'one and done' rate hike in June.
• Governor Bailey characterised the decision not to cut, which is what the Bank was likely to have done pre-war, as in effect a decision to tighten policy.

By James Smith, Developed Markets Economist, UK

One month ago, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told us markets were getting ahead of themselves on rate hike pricing. That feels like the underlying message from the April decision, which keeps

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