Summary

• History leans toward resilience for equities after rate surges.
• Forward 1- and 2-year returns skew positive across many yield spike scenarios.
• The first 3-6 months carry the most noise, making short-run equity reactions highly path-dependent.

By James Picerno

Inflation worries triggered by Middle East turmoil continue to hang over the global economy and financial markets. Economists are still debating whether hotter inflation driven by surging energy costs will persist or

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