Summary

• Kevin Warsh’s tenure as Fed chair begins amid surging inflation, geopolitical instability, and a sharply divided FOMC.
• Despite Warsh’s dovish reputation, persistent inflation and strong employment data make near-term rate cuts unlikely.
• Market consensus is shifting toward potential rate hikes, but rapid reversals remain possible if energy prices stabilize.
• Diversification is key; utilities (XLU), gold, and copper offer tactical plays for both inflationary and deflationary scenarios.
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Thesis Summary

Kevin Warsh is presiding over his first meeting as Fed chair, and everyone’s watching.

The market widely understands that Warsh was appointed by President Trump to be a dove and cut rates.

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