Summary

• The CRE recovery remains intact, but the headline obscures an increasingly uneven landscape.
• The commercial real estate recovery remains intact, supported by rising private valuations, improved transaction activity, and continued access to debt capital.
• Dispersion in returns is not new, but its implications are different today.

The CRE recovery remains intact, but the headline obscures an increasingly uneven landscape. A 144-basis point spread between the top and bottom quartiles of NPI returns in 1Q26 underscores the extent of this divergence. With limited scope