Summary

• A surprise US-Iran interim agreement has triggered a powerful risk-on rally, with Nasdaq 100 futures surging 3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 2% as traders aggressively unwind geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
• Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, and Gold have all posted bullish gap-ups, but their advances remain vulnerable to reversal if key support levels fail, particularly given the absence of a signed agreement and published deal details.
• Several hidden risks remain unresolved, including sanctions relief terms, Iran’s proposed transit fees for Hormuz shipping, and the possibility of unilateral Israeli military actions that could rapidly derail the current optimism and trigger renewed market volatility.

By Kelvin Wong

A remarkable turn of events, the announcement of an interim agreement between the US and Iran in today’s early Asia session (Monday, 15 June) to end hostilities and reopen the vital energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, triggered