Rates Face Risk Of Instability
2026-05-15
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via All Articles on Seeking Alpha
Summary
- Market rates have risen because of the Iran war, but have been controlled (apart from UK gilts).
- An extrapolation of the shutdown of the Strait points to higher market rates still.
- We expect the US 10yr yield to land at around 4.5% by mid-year, but it risks overshooting in the next few weeks.
Dilok Klaisataporn/iStock via Getty Images
By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas
US Treasuries showing measured reaction to grind higher in the price of oil. That can change
Where to start. The standoff between the US and Iran
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