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As Memorial Day kicks off the unofficial start of summer travel, another major force is shaping vacation plans and corporate forecasts: FIFA World Cup 2026. While retailers, airlines and short-term rental companies are already cashing in on the global tournament buzz, many hotels in host cities say bookings have yet to meet expectations. With millions of fans expected across North America, companies like United Airlines (UAL), Airbnb (ABNB), and Marriott (MAR) are betting late-breaking travel demand will still turn this summer into a winning season.

This is an abridged transcript.

The unofficial start to summer is here.

With Memorial Day just days away, millions are preparing to take advantage of the three-day weekend by traveling to see loved ones, make new memories, and unwind.

AAA says nearly 45 million Americans will travel over Memorial Day which is the highest total on record. However, the association says year-over-year growth is less than one percent.

It’s the smallest year over year increase in more than a decade.

After the three day weekend is over, what’s next? What are you planning to do to keep you busy this summer?

Maybe it's something you can’t escape. Everyone from retail to hospitality is getting in on the action.

It hit me that FIFA World Cup 2026 was literally everywhere when I saw Lego in Costco (COST) featuring multiple sets. You can also find the building blocks at places like Kohl’s (KSS) and Target (TGT). The most costly of which is the replica trophy which will set you back about 200 bucks.

The soccer tournaments that will last more than 5 weeks kick off in just under 21 days on June 11.

Three countries, 16 host cities, 48 teams, and 6.5 million fans in stadiums across Canada, Mexico and the United States.

In the U.S. those cities include Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, the combined metro of New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia, Seattle and the San Francisco Bay Area.

So, what kind of return is expected for such an event?

The American Hotel & Lodging Association noted earlier this month that a new report warned that the World Cup hotel boom may fall short of expectations. The FIFA World Cup 2026 Hotel Outlook found that anticipated demand “has not translated into the strong hotel bookings they were expecting and domestic travelers are outpacing international visitors.”

The data comes from hotels in the eleven cities I mentioned a moment ago.

Eighty percent of those who responded said hotel bookings are tracking below initial forecasts; 65 to 70% said they believe visa requirements and geopolitical concerns are the reason international visitors aren’t booking.

It’s important to note that the Trump administration recently announced the suspension of visa bond requirements for confirmed World Cup ticket holders.

Of the 11 cities, Atlanta said bookings were in-line or above expectations and Miami said bookings were pacing ahead of expectations. This leaves 9 cities that are not seeing what they thought they would.

Seventy-eight of the 104 matches will be played in the United States including the final on July 19 at New York/New Jersey Stadium.

Do the stats match what hotels are saying?

I did a keyword search for World Cup in the most recent earnings call transcripts of different companies. I didn’t find FIFA or World Cup for Hilton Worldwide (HLT) which reported at the end of April. The keyword search proved productive for RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ), Host Hotels & Resorts (HST) as well as Marriott International (MAR).

HST Executive VP and CFO, Sourav Ghosh had this to say.

We continue to expect an estimated 40 basis point net benefit from special events for the full year with an estimated 60 basis point lift from the World Cup, partially offset by a 20 basis point headwind from the presidential inauguration in the first quarter of 2025.

They also mentioned something to keep in mind.

It is important to point out that bulk of the demand around the World Cup is expected to materialize within the 30-day booking window. That said, we are encouraged that transient revenue pace for our portfolio in World Cup markets is up nearly 40% year-over-year, and has been steadily picking up occupancy as we get closer to the match dates.

And a similar sentiment from RLJ. Leslie Hale, President & CEO said the third quarter will benefit more than the second quarter from World Cup because there’s a higher demand for later-stage games.

Marriott International (MAR) said World Cup is still expected to add 30 to 35 basis points to global RevPAR growth this year.

All three reported earnings in early May.

Of the three, HST is the only one with a Seeking Alpha quant rating of Strong Buy. RLJ isn’t too far behind with a Buy rating. Marriott’s quant rating is Hold.

Or perhaps everyone is staying in an Airbnb (ABNB).

The World Cup is the next chapter in our event strategy, says Brian Chesky, CEO of Airbnb (ABNB) on the company’s most recent earnings call on May 7th.

And we expect to host more guests than any event in Airbnb's history.

Airbnb’s (ABNB) World Cup planning kicked into high gear in October. Since then more than 100,000 homes have listed on Airbnb (ABNB) for the first time.

The company’s Chief Financial Officer said on the same call that they are happy with bookings leading up to the game.

Here’s Ellie Mertz with a similar sentiment to that of HST and RLJ.

Both previous World Cup as well as both most recent Olympics, is that a lot of the booking activity happens close to the actual games. People -- the games approach, people get increasingly excited, as in this case, the tournaments continue. People know who's playing and what game and so many of the bookings are closer to the actual date than, say, typical travel.

Mertz also says Airbnb’s (ABNB) thought process goes beyond July 19th.

To give you a data point in terms of supply retention, what we saw with Paris was that, say, 6 months after the games, we have retained in excess of half of the listings that had come on specifically for the games.

As of the time of this recording, Airbnb (ABNB) sits at $135.55 with a Seeking Alpha quant rating of Hold.

When you look at analysts ratings on the left side of the page, you’ll see red, green and yellow. The latest ten writings on ABNB show one sell, 3 buy, 5 hold ratings and one with no rating.

Airbnb’s (ABNB) valuation grade on Seeking Alpha is an F, the same as three months ago and lower than 6 months ago. Growth, profitability, momentum and revisions all get a passing grade.

This week Airbnb (ABNB) expanded its platform beyond home rentals, adding to its app independent hotels along with new services, including car rentals, grocery delivery, and luggage storage.

Just in time for summer.

If you aren’t driving to a game, how are you getting there?

United Airlines (UAL) says 53M people are expected to fly on the carrier this summer, up 3M from a year ago. Bookings are up 20% to locations hosting this year’s FIFA World Cup.

Our main topic today has been FIFA World Cup 2026. But, World Cup isn't the only game in town.

This week Google released information about trending search topics. U.S summer travel is trending towards the outdoors, national parks, a slower pace. Search trends show that international travel “combines cultural history with local transit and food.”

So, basically the travel bug is taking you all over this summer. Where will you choose to stay? An Airbnb or a hotel?

Catalyst watch: BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) reports earnings.

That’s all I have for you today. Since Monday is a stock market holiday we’ll see you back here on Tuesday.