Summary

• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a record low of 44.8 in May 2026, worse than any reading during the 2008 Financial Crisis, the 1980 inflation panic, or the COVID lockdown.
• Fed research confirms the partisan gap in sentiment is now larger than the gaps by income, age, or education combined, and the survey's 2024 switch to online interviews added another structural distortion worth roughly 8.9 index points.
• The Conference Board's confidence index sits at 92.8, well above its own historical lows, so the two surveys are telling very different stories about the same economy.
• Economic data tells a third story entirely - Q1 corporate earnings growing 27%, retail sales up 4.9% YoY, weekly jobless claims at 209,000, and the S&P 500 closing at a record 7,473.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index just printed 44.8 in May. That’s the worst reading since the survey began in 1952. That print was lower than in 2008 and the 1980 inflation panic. It was also worse