BTC options have turned defensive near $77K, with short-dated puts clustered around $75.5K-77K and net delta flat to slightly negative.
BTC daily options volume is thin ($0.08-0.39M over May 16-18), well below the May 1 peak of $12.78M.
ETH gave the cleanest single-day signal on May 18: PCR 0.42, Dec 25 $2,200 call dominant, net delta +$0.19M - but it sits at the lower end of its range.
The shift from May 7 conviction (PCR 0.13, +$0.93M delta) to May 18 defense (PCR 0.86, -$0.02M delta) is the key change versus earlier reports.
My base case is stabilization between $75.5K and $79K. A bullish read requires call activity above $78K with positive delta. A break below $75.5K opens the breakdown case.
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1) Investment Thesis
BTC (BTC-USD) options aren't sending the same recovery signal anymore.
In the May 16-19 report, BTC is sitting near $77K, volume is thin, net delta is flat to slightly negative, and the active strikes have moved
