Summary

• ICE Brent still managed to settle 2.3% lower yesterday and below $103/bbl, its lowest close since early May.
• The outlook for the US natural gas market since the Iran war has been relatively bearish, given that higher oil prices are likely to lead to higher associated gas production.
• The latest numbers from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that China’s refined copper output rose 3% year-on-year to 1.3mt in April.
• Brazil's agriculture agency, CONAB, raised its coffee production estimates for 2026 /27 as favourable weather conditions resulted in improved yields.
• The USDA’s weekly net export sales for the week ending 14 May showed a rise in demand for US corn and soybeans, while wheat exports fell over the previous week.

By Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy and Ewa Manthey, Commodities Strategist

Energy - Oil focus remains on US-Iran negotiations

Markets are still searching for signs of progress in a potential deal between the US

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