Summary

• Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. offers significant upside, with activist involvement and insider buying signaling potential for value creation despite macro headwinds.
• Starboard and Jana Partners have taken major stakes, pushing for cost reductions and a 25% adjusted EBITDA margin by fiscal 2029.
• Q3 results showed strong North American demand and cost-cutting progress, but European and Asian softness and inventory write-downs highlight risks.
• I maintain a Strong Buy rating on LW stock, but given recession risks and consumer weakness, I keep my position small and seek better entry points.

Back in July 2025, I wrote a bullish article on Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW), suggesting it had upside and that it could even be a potential takeover target. My thesis on a buyout has not worked out yet, but I still see some promising signs that this stock could have significant upside ahead. At the time my article was published, this stock was trading for around $50, and it went up to roughly $65 per share in October 2025, and I sold my shares. However, it now trades for about $44, which I believe could be another attractive entry point.

As the expression goes, "Where there's smoke, there's fire" and in this case the smoke could be viewed as being the shareholder activists that have become involved with Lamb Weston, with the hopes of reducing expenses and creating shareholder value. With this in mind, let's take a closer look below.

The Chart

As shown below, Lamb Weston shares were trading for around $65 in October 2025 but then declined towards the end of the year and have been bouncing around ever since. This stock is now trading just slightly above the 50-day moving average, which is around $42, and well below the 200-day moving average, which is just over $50 per share. This stock is trading fairly close to the 52-week low of just over $37 and well below the 52-week high of around $67. I would not be surprised to see this retest the 52-week lows, but I would consider buying more if it showed signs of support on a retest of this level.

Earning Estimates, The Balance Sheet And Dividends

The earnings estimates below are provided by Seeking Alpha and show that this stock is trading for just around 15 times earnings estimates for 2026. I think it's

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of LW either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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