Summary

• Markets enter July with a ceasefire that nobody quite trusts. The 60-day de-escalation between Washington and Tehran has done its job on paper. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased markedly.
• The sharp decline in oil prices coupled with the sharp sell-off in technology shares as the first half wound down took some pressure off interest rates.
• The post-Powell Fed is going to communicate differently, and July's FOMC meeting will offer the first real test of whether that opacity is a deliberate strategy or simply a new chair still finding his footing.
• Among the G10 components, the Australian dollar fell the most, nearly 4%. The Canadian dollar experienced a 10-day slide in June and lost about 2.7%.

Markets enter July with a ceasefire that nobody quite trusts. The 60-day de-escalation between Washington and Tehran has done its job on paper. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has increased markedly. Oil has responded accordingly, with August WTI