Markit·2026-06-20·via All Articles on Seeking Alpha
Summary
Even with a decline from their peak, commodity prices in the fourth quarter of 2028 are projected to remain above fourth quarter 2025 levels.
Oil, natural gas, chemicals, plastics, and select nonferrous metals face direct supply disruptions, while steel is affected indirectly by higher transport costs and weaker demand.
Aluminum supply is constrained by a month-over-month drop in output from Gulf Cooperation Council smelters in April, with recovery expected to be slow.
Brent crude oil is forecast to stay above $100/barrel into 2028, a longer period than previously expected.
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Why are long-term price elevations a growing concern?
The duration of the conflict is creating a "higher for longer" price trajectory. The time needed to repair physical infrastructure, rebuild inventories, and normalize shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz means
