Summary

• The dollar fell against all the G10 currencies, the Antipodeans, and the Scandis, which seem the most sensitive to growth prospects and the risk environment.
• The euro bottomed in the middle of March, but the upside seemed stalled until the ceasefire was announced.
• Last week, the PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at its lowest level in three years.
• Around mid-March, the 30-day correlation of changes in the US dollar-Canadian dollar exchange rate and the Dollar Index rose above 0.85, its highest since mid-2024.
• Changes in the Australian dollar and the Dollar Index are the most inversely correlated (30-days) since last October (~-0.78).

Hope that the ceasefire will lead to the end of the Middle East war fanned risk appetites in recent days. Equities rallied broadly. May WTI and June Brent fell by nearly 11.5%. The dollar fell against

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