Summary

• The current stock market bull cycle, now ~16 years old, is likely to persist until at least 2027, supported by healthy private debt levels.
• Historical cycles and yield curve analysis suggest a market top is more probable in 2027-28, not 2026, absent a second 10y-2y inversion.
• Short-term models indicate SPX weakness through early May, offering buy-the-dip opportunities in broad ETFs like IWM, DIA, QQQ, and SPY.
• Continued positive net money creation underpins the rally, with expected pullbacks around interest payments, notably the next on May 15.
• This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Away From The Herd. Learn More »

In this piece, we present our long-term and short-term analysis of the stock market.

Long-Term

Both the stock market and the real estate market are cyclical. The major cycle is about 20 years in wavelength and corresponds to the length of

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