Summary

• The market environment has shifted repeatedly over the past year, driven by a combination of policy uncertainty, geopolitical developments, and changing financial conditions.
• Assessing the economic impact of renewed conflict in the Middle East remains challenging, particularly given its implications for global supply chains and energy markets.
• Bear markets, characterized by a 20% decline from prior peaks, have historically been far shorter in duration than bull markets, which often last longer and yield higher returns.

The market environment has shifted repeatedly over the past year, driven by a combination of policy uncertainty, geopolitical developments, and changing financial conditions.

Beginning in April 2025, amid heightened trade tensions, markets experienced notable volatility before

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