Summary

• Many assumed that if the Middle East conflict lasted more than a few weeks, it would be meaningfully negative for risk assets.
• Markets appear to have made a judgment call. They haven’t priced this as a conflict that spirals endlessly outward.
• It seems markets crave narrative closure more than calendar precision; are conditions getting better relative to deteriorated expectations?

By Brian Levitt, Chief Global Market Strategist and Head of Strategy & Insights

“It depends on the duration of the conflict.” I cannot remember ever hearing a singular phrase as often as I have this one during the