Summary

• Three simultaneous supply shocks - Russia, Hormuz and China - have no available circuit breaker.
• The Brent benchmark may no longer reflect real global crude pricing as Dubai/Oman diverges.
• Diesel and jet fuel shortages stem from a deficit of medium sour crude, specifically, not crude overall.
• LNG and diesel shortages appear to be reinforcing each other in a compounding feedback loop.
• Conflict resolution will not restore the risk architecture that existed before Hormuz closed.

Oil markets are pricing a temporary shock, but a deeper shift is emerging. Benchmarks are diverging from the crude that is actually scarce, exposing a structural gap.

Hormuz is the headline, but the real story runs

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