Summary

• Consumer delinquencies remain at comfortable levels. Consumer spending comprises 68%-70% of US GDP.
• Consumer delinquency rates remain well below the thresholds indicating financial fragility in the past.
• The recent small rise in loan delinquencies is likely due to student loans now requiring payments after a post-COVID period of deferral.

Consumer delinquencies remain at comfortable levels. Consumer spending comprises 68%-70% of US GDP. When the consumer is in trouble is when we are likely to enter recession on any given shock.

Consumer delinquency rates remain

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