Summary

• Eight weeks have now passed since US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
• After considering the diversion of some oil via pipelines and the trickle of tankers still making it through the Strait of Hormuz, around 14m b/d of oil supply is currently disrupted.
• Under a prolonged disruption scenario, substantially higher oil prices - across both crude and refined products - would still be required to drive additional demand destruction.

By Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy

Lingering supply disruptions lifting floor for the oil market

Eight weeks have now passed since US and Israeli strikes on Iran. This led to the ongoing blockade of the

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