Summary

• Saipem SpA maintains constructive guidance, with project delivery in the Middle East largely unaffected and payment flows stable despite regional disruptions.
• SAPMF's margin profile continues to improve as legacy backlog is digested, though lease expenses and D&A from a growing fleet weigh on EBIT.
• The upcoming 50:50 merger with Subsea 7 undervalues SAPMF, but it's still going to end up cheaper than FTI.
• While not expensive relative to TechnipFMC, we think that further disruption in one scenario will hit guidance eventually, though the current resolution may also hurt it as its correlates fall.
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Saipem SpA (SAPMF) appears, even after analysts repeatedly asking for clarification, to be doing fine with relation to project delivery in the Middle East and being paid for such delivery. It also appears that with the Strait

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