The Eurozone's Goods Trade Surplus Is Under Structural Threat
2026-04-23
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Summary The eurozone's trade balance for goods is facing both cyclical and structural pressure. After a long period of large surpluses, volatility is likely to increase and the average surplus is set to decline. While some rebalancing can be healthy, this is more a sign of weakness than strength, as eurozone exports are under pressure. J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images
By Bert Colijn , Chief Economist, Netherlands, and Amrita Naik Nimbalkar , Economist, Global Macro
The eurozone growth model, built on competitive exports of goods and access to cheap inputs, is under structural pressure. The energy price shocks, increased Chinese
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