Summary

• Forward-looking indicators are weakening, coincident data are softening, and only lagging measures still reflect past strength.
• February’s BCM suggests the economy is losing momentum.
• The Roughly Coincident Indicator came in at 17, with one component improving and five declining.
• The Lagging Indicator stood at 67, with four components improving and two declining.

By Peter C. Earle

The February 2026 AIER Business Conditions Monthly (BCM) highlights a notable divergence across the economic cycle, with forward-looking indicators softening, contemporaneous measures deteriorating, and lagging data continuing to reflect earlier resilience, although some of this pattern

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