Summary

• U.S. natural-gas prices began the year at $3.62 per mcf and, by January 28, had surged to $7.50—an increase of more than 100 percent in less than four weeks.
• Bitterly cold temperatures settled over the eastern half of the United States through much of January, producing the largest weekly storage draw ever recorded.
• Iranian missile strikes had caused extensive damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, home to the country's LNG export trains as well as its gas-to-liquids facilities.
• The BTU contained within a U.S. natural-gas molecule now trades at roughly an 85 percent discount to the BTU contained in an internationally traded molecule.
• Goehring & Rozencwajg continue to believe that production growth in the Permian Basin will begin materially slowing during the second half of 2026.

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