Summary

• Global leading economic indicators (LEIs) are now decisively rolling over, signaling a broad-based cyclical downturn after prior resilience.
• Secular market drivers are shifting: AI hyperscalers' capital intensity is reversing years of capital-light, cash-generative business models, impacting equity issuance and buyback dynamics.
• Equity investors should not panic solely on recent LEI weakness; historical analogs suggest average six-month returns of 3.6% even after sharp LEI drops.
• Country-level divergence persists, with the US, Mexico, Canada, Brazil, and South Korea showing strength, while Europe, Indonesia, and South Africa weaken; China emerges as a potential contrarian opportunity.

The April/May 2026 edition of the global LEI chartbook can be found here. Additional details on the methodology are available here.

I am combining the April and May updates to the LEI Chartbook into a