We noted an overshoot risk towards 4.75% for the 10yr yield. Hitting that has a higher likelihood now that we’ve sailed above 4.5% without material buying.
It is worth emphasising that the big up-move in yields in the past week has not come from higher inflation expectations.
The fact that higher real yields is a feature gives the higher yields narrative a more sinister feel.
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By Padhraic Garvey, CFA, Regional Head of Research, Americas
Last week we noted that we faced a period of instability for Treasuries. See it here. Since then, the US 10yr yield hit 4.6% last Friday, and today has
