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Allstate: The Turnaround Is Real, But The Story May Not B...
The CrickAnt · 2026-05-13 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha

Summary

  • Allstate has executed a genuine turnaround, with the Q1 2026 combined ratio improving to 82% from 97.4% and underwriting income surging to $2.7 billion.
  • ALL still trades at 4.7–7.5x forward P/E, despite restored profitability and robust capital returns and strong capital generation.
  • The company continued returning capital to shareholders in Q1 2026 and authorized a new $4 billion buyback program through 2028, signaling confidence in sustained earnings.
  • I maintain a 'Strong Buy' rating on ALL, targeting 45–74% upside if 2026 post-tax earnings reach $8 billion and the market rerates the stock.
Highway at sunrise, going into Death Valley National Park

Wildroze/E+ via Getty Images

Allstate (ALL) is a turnaround story. As described in my comparison with Chubb (CB), Allstate is a U.S. insurer, focused on the U.S. market, which suffered in the past from a lack of underwriting discipline, while

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CNA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I currently have no position in Allstate, but I may consider initiating one through shares or options in the future.

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