Higher Inflation Is Becoming Baked Into Expectations
2026-05-12·via All Articles on Seeking Alpha
Summary
President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is on 'massive life support,' which suggests that inflation risk will remain elevated.
Oil prices continue to trade above $100 a barrel for the US crude benchmark as Trump has become increasingly frustrated with Iran’s negotiating positions to formally end the conflict that is keeping Gulf energy exports blocked.
Betting markets are pricing in higher odds that inflation will top 4% this year, substantially higher than the 3.3% year‑over‑year trend reported for headline CPI through March.
The Treasury market’s implied inflation forecast is also near multi‑year highs, based on the spread between inflation‑indexed yields and their nominal counterparts.
Shutthiphong Chandaeng/iStock via Getty Images
President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is on “massive life support,” which suggests that inflation risk will remain elevated.
Oil prices continue to trade above $100 a barrel for the US crude benchmark as
