Summary

• Long-term equity returns are likely to be meager due to persistently high stock valuations and a lack of compelling investment opportunities.
• Buffett's inability to find attractive investments and his shift to building cash highlight structural challenges for buy-and-hold strategies, especially in technology.
• Intermediate-term investing, strong management, and tactical allocation to cash, gold, and energy are favored over passive long-term index exposure.
• AI-driven euphoria is seen as late-cycle; caution is warranted, with a preference for optionality, precious metals, and select energy exposure.

When I initially came up with this title, I think my point was simply stock prices have been too high for too long to be good for long term investing. Indeed, analysts will tell you that investment returns from this kind of P/E

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GLD, B either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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