Summary

• The June FOMC meeting delivered unanimous consensus, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% and stripping forward guidance from its statement.
• Warsh's regime change signals a shift to minimal statements, avoidance of projections, and a focus on real-time data for policy decisions.
• The Fed is launching task forces to modernize inflation measurement, potentially influencing both Fed and BLS methodologies and impacting reported inflation.
• I expect the current rate to remain terminal, with hawkish rhetoric aimed at anchoring expectations but no actual hikes likely in the foreseeable future.

An article I wrote two weeks ago called “Warsh's First Challenge,” I made the argument that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (“FOMC”) was going to be more dovish than expected on this report. This would come at the

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