Lance Roberts·2026-05-04·via All Articles on Seeking Alpha
Summary
The S&P 500 has rallied roughly 14% off its late-March washout to a new high near 7,125.
The 14-day relative strength index on the S&P 500 has spent most of the past three weeks above 70, the threshold that has historically marked overbought conditions.
The Volatility Index is sitting in the mid-teens, which sounds reassuring until you remember that the VIX was at 12 in January 2020 and 15 the week before the bottom dropped out.
Brent crude is sitting above $109 a barrel, roughly 40% above its level on the eve of the conflict.
Victoria Kotlyarchuk /iStock via Getty Images
Collapsing breadth. Stretched positioning. The worst seasonal window of the year. The worst year of the political cycle. And a war that won’t end. Market correction risk is stacking up.
