Summary

• The US–Iran conflict has entered its third month, and the prospects for a quick solution remain low after a fragile ceasefire briefly broke down in the Gulf on Monday.
• An already-precarious US–Iran ceasefire looked close to collapsing after Iranian drones and missiles struck targets in the United Arab Emirates, and Washington said its forces had destroyed Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Some central banks are raising interest rates and citing Middle East–related inflation as a risk factor.
• The path ahead largely depends on whether the recent flare‑up in the Gulf fades or settles in as a lasting strain.

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