Infrastructure Capital Advisors·2026-06-25·via All Articles on Seeking Alpha
Summary
We are reiterating our forecast of three Fed rate cuts over the next year despite the hawkish press conference by Chair Warsh and a dot plot that indicates two rate hikes this year.
Warsh softened up the arbitrary 2% target by focusing on the ‘left side of the decimal’ target of 2.0%. This implies the Fed’s de facto absolute ceiling for inflation is 2.9%.
As the likely three cuts are priced into Fed fund futures, the 10-year bond will decline to below 4% as it normally trades 100 basis points over the terminal Fed Funds rate.
Richard Drury/DigitalVision via Getty Images
We are reiterating our forecast of three Fed rate cuts over the next year despite the hawkish press conference by Chair Warsh and a dot plot that indicates two rate hikes this year. In fact, we
