After listening to monetary policy hints and clues from Jerome Powell for eight years, investors now have a different voice to decode. Kevin Warsh is hosting his first press conference as the head of the central bank, which is also coming at another big juncture for the market—the winding down of the war in Iran. WTI crude oil (CL1:COM) even dropped another 6% on Tuesday to $75 per barrel, far below the $116 reached on April 6, but still elevated from the pre-war level of around $65.

Snapshot: The FOMC is widely expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% as uncertainty continues to reign over the trajectory of prices. More FOMC members have voiced concerns that inflation has remained above the Fed's 2% goal for five years, and some policymakers say they can no longer ignore the one-time price increases that have piled on top of each other. While the labor market appears to be solid and U.S. economic growth is chugging along, there have been increased forecasts for a rate hike by the end of the year, so pay close attention to the removal of "easing bias" and the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections.

The divide in views on policy is likely to be especially notable in the dot plot, and Warsh even encouraged robust debate during his Senate confirmation hearing. However, he's more of a fan of limiting policy debate to FOMC meetings themselves and not telegraphing everything, since it could hinder the Fed's decision-making abilities. Warsh may not participate in the dot plot this time around, and might even seek to eliminate the grid altogether and other methods of forward guidance. He could also revisit the traditional post-meeting presser, as well as explore new plans, ranging from balance sheet reduction to the inflation models used by the Fed.

SA commentary: "[Warsh] will likely acknowledge that economic conditions do not justify rate cuts at this time," ING Economic and Financial Analysis writes in Kevin Warsh Navigates A Hawkish Fed Shift. "Nonetheless, he could reiterate his view that, in time, tech investment will boost US productivity, meaning faster growth without generating inflation. That would imply a lower neutral interest rate that justifies lower policy rates over the medium to longer term."