Summary

• Prices for computers and peripheral equipment rose at an 18.5% annual rate in Q1, while R&D prices rose 5.5%.
• The year-over-year change in NGDP released last week was 6.04%, up from 4.65% in Q1 last year.
• Real disposable personal income (after taxes and inflation) was actually down 0.1% and is up a mere 0.4% over the last year.
• The earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 rose from 15% to 27.1% last week.
• All this AI spending amounts to a giant bet on future growth from the AI productivity increase everyone assumes will materialize any minute now.

So we’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now. But that doesn’t mean that investing is terrible. It does mean that prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly.

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