Summary

• The NASDAQ's 12-session rally contrasts sharply with deteriorating economic signals, including slashed GDP forecasts and surging inflation risks.
• OpenAI's $852B valuation, massive cash burn, and delayed profitability highlight speculative excess; an IPO at $1T+ is possible despite mounting losses.
• Private credit and CRE markets show rising stress, with private credit default rates potentially reaching 15% and CMBS office delinquencies exceeding GFC peaks.
• I remain highly cautious around the markets despite equities' winning streak. 6 signposts of an irrational market follow in the paragraphs below.
• Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Biotech Forum get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More »

The NASDAQ rose for the 12th straight trading session on Thursday. That is the tech-heavy index's longest winning streak since 2009, when the country was taking its first baby steps out of the Great Financial Crisis. I have to admit I am feeling

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