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Wall Street Lunch: UAE Blindsides Oil Market With OPEC Exit Plan
2026-04-29 · via All Articles on Seeking Alpha
Entrance signage to the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Vienna

todamo/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Listen below or on the go on Apple Podcasts and Spotify

UAE shocks market, quits cartel to seek output flexibility. (0:15 ) OpenAI partners fall after reported target misses. (1:19) Coca-Cola climbs on strong organic revenue. (1:39)

This is an abridged transcript of the podcast:

Our top story so far, the United Arab Emirates blindsided the oil market today, saying it will exit OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1.

"This decision follows a comprehensive review of the U.A.E.'s production policy and its current and future capacity and is based on our national interest and our commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the market's pressing needs," the country's energy ministry said.

The UAE said the decision followed a strategic review of its energy policy and a need for greater flexibility in managing oil production. OPEC membership requires adherence to collective output targets, which can limit individual countries’ production levels.

Gregory Brew, senior analyst for Iran and oil at the Eurasia Group, declared the Carter Doctrine “essentially dead,” noting that “tankers are being seized/attacked on the open seas, OPEC members are breaking off to produce what they want, SPRs are being drained.”

“Any and all forces that were able to produce market stability are falling by the wayside,’ he said.

The UAE has expanded its oil production capacity to nearly 5M barrels per day and wants the ability to utilize that capacity more fully outside OPEC quotas. Potential additional supply from the country could be up to 1M barrels per day.

Among active stocks, shares of OpenAI partners SoftBank Group (SFTBY) and Oracle (ORCL) are under pressure after The Wall Street Journal reported the maker of ChatGPT recently missed targets for sales and new users.

In a statement to CNBC, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called the report "ridiculous"; said "we are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can."

Coca-Cola Company (KO) is among the top S&P gainers after smashing organic revenue estimates. Organic revenue rose 10% vs. the +7.1% consensus estimate. The organic revenue growth was led by gains in the North America and Europe, Middle East & Africa segments.

And shares of Corning (GLW) are falling after Q2 sales guidance of $4.6B came in below analysts' estimate of $4.67B.

In other news of note, billionaire investor Ray Dalio is warning that proposed wealth taxes could destabilize markets, particularly as structural economic shifts accelerate.

Dalio, who remains optimistic about the transformative power of artificial intelligence, said AI is poised to significantly boost productivity and lower long-term costs. But he cautioned that these gains may come with major disruptions, including widespread job displacement and a widening wealth gap between asset owners and the broader population.

That growing imbalance is where policy risk emerges. Wealth taxes—aimed at redistributing accumulated assets—could unintentionally trigger market stress. Unlike income or cash, wealth is often tied up in assets such as stocks, real estate, or private investments. To meet tax obligations, individuals may be forced to liquidate portions of those holdings.

And in the Wall Street Research Corner, semiconductor stocks (SMH) have been rallying at a pace not seen dot-com boom.

Turning Point Market Research’s Dean Christians noted that during the peak 1990s run in internet services, there were 15 instances when the sector’s 18-day rate of change exceeded 36%.

Semis are now approaching that same threshold, largely driven by AI capex and data-center demand. The dot-com era featured many massive surges before the final top, but the pattern demonstrates how compressed the chip move has become.

Editor's Note: This article discusses one or more securities that do not trade on a major U.S. exchange. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.