Summary

• The industry appears to have entered another structurally tight phase following years of inadequate capital spending, just as the market confronts an acute physical bottleneck of historic proportions.
• If oil were once again to experience the sort of eight- to ten-fold repricing seen during prior structural shifts, several years of $120 to $150 oil no longer seem nearly as implausible.
• Goehring & Rozencwajg's work suggested the previous year's surplus was materially smaller than widely believed, and that underlying demand was both stronger and growing considerably faster than consensus estimates implied.
• Growth across nearly every major shale basin outside the Permian has already stalled or turned negative, and even the Permian itself is no longer growing at anything close to its former rate.
• The United Arab Emirates' decision may ultimately be remembered as an acknowledgment that the organization's era of genuine spare capacity had already ended.

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