Summary

• The results of the Fed's annual bank stress test were released today. They are "well positioned to weather a severe recession." The banks got an all-clear with room to spare.
• That all-clear signal was met, almost immediately, with announcement from major banks of dividend increases. This, on the same afternoon as the stress test results, should signal the regulatory regime is loosening and credit growth is coming.
• And this comes on the same afternoon that Micron answered the questions about the durability of AI demand unequivocally.

Originally published on June 24, 2026

Back in early May, we walked through the playbook (then) Fed Governor Stephen Miran laid out on how Kevin Warsh can shrink the balance sheet without creating a liquidity shock.