Summary

• U.S. economic growth remains robust, driven by strong consumption, AI-related capex, and resilient household and corporate balance sheets.
• Manufacturing is recovering and productivity is surging, but housing and residential investment remain modest drags on growth.
• Forward EPS estimates and business investment signal continued strength for risk assets, with fiscal policy providing an additional tailwind in 2026.
• Inflation and monetary policy cycles are shifting to headwinds, but fiscal and productivity booms should support the business cycle into 2026.

In 2025 growth slowed modestly in the face of a fiscal contraction and tariff shock, but remained far from recessionary levels. Overall, the U.S. economy grew at slightly below average levels and again showed its resilience in the face of

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