Summary

• Oversubscribed data storage is the cleanest signal on the current state of AI demand. The signal showed up in the latest earnings reports across the AI kings. All four of them guided higher (either explicitly or implicitly).
• The capex fatigue thesis didn't show up. Instead, it continues to accelerate. And it's because the demand/the revenue is locked in.
• If there's a chink in the armor, it's that capex is starting to eat into free cash flow until they can actually fulfill on the orders. And it's free cash flow that funds the huge buybacks the big tech stocks have done in recent years.

Originally published on April 29, 2026

Yesterday, we talked about the cleanest signal on the current state of AI demand. That signal is oversubscribed data storage.

Indeed, the signal from Seagate (STX) earnings

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